Wall Street’s AI trade is heading into Friday with less confidence than it had 24 hours ago.
Nasdaq futures led the decline as chip stocks gave back part of their Micron-driven rally, while investors again questioned whether the sector’s explosive gains have run ahead of earnings reality.
The mood was not helped by reports that OpenAI may wait until next year to go public, a symbolic setback for a theme that has dominated markets since ChatGPT’s launch.
Add sticky inflation, Fed rate risk and Russell index changes, and the final session of the week looks set for heavy, uneven trading.
5 things to know before Wall Street opens
1. Nasdaq futures lead the retreat
S&P 500 futures fell 0.16%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.66%. Dow futures, however, gained 92 points, or 0.18%.
The move followed a mixed Wall Street close on Thursday, when losses in Big Tech offset gains in industrials, healthcare and materials.
The S&P 500 ended little changed, but the Nasdaq remained under pressure and was on track for a steep weekly fall.
2. Micron rally runs into profit-taking
Micron dropped 4.8% in premarket trading after surging more than 15% in the previous session.
Its strong quarterly forecast had briefly revived confidence in AI infrastructure spending, but Friday’s pullback showed investors are still willing to lock in gains after a huge run.
The broader chip complex also weakened. Intel and AMD fell more than 3% each, while Nvidia slipped 1.4%.
The reversal matters because semiconductors have been among the biggest winners of the AI rally, leaving them vulnerable whenever investors question valuation or capital-spending assumptions.
3. AI spending doubts return
The core concern is not whether AI demand exists. It clearly does.
The question is how quickly spending on data centres, chips and power infrastructure turns into durable profit for the companies funding it.
Alphabet and Amazon have already come under pressure this week as traders scrutinised hyperscaler budgets.
Apple added another layer to the debate after raising prices on some products to offset higher memory and storage costs.
That move highlighted the other side of the AI boom: chip demand is boosting suppliers, but it is also raising input costs for device makers.
4. OpenAI report weighs on sentiment
A report that OpenAI may delay its public listing until next year added to the cautious tone.
Analysts said such a delay would carry symbolic weight because OpenAI helped ignite the current AI investment cycle.
SpaceX also remained in focus after its recent market debut.
The stock slipped 1.7% in choppy premarket trading, with investors preparing for its fast-track addition to the Russell 1000.
Friday’s Russell index rebalancing is expected to lift trading volumes across several large-cap names.
5. Fed risk stays in the background
Macroeconomic pressure has not gone away. Traders are pricing in one 25-basis-point Fed rate increase and see a near 27% chance of another by year-end.
New York Fed President John Williams said inflation should moderate this year, but remains too high.
The final June consumer sentiment reading is due later on Friday, while next week’s jobs report will be the next major test.
For now, Wall Street is caught between two forces: AI earnings still look strong, but the price investors are willing to pay for them is being challenged again.
